Amazon has transitioned from being just an e-commerce behemoth to a global tech powerhouse, driven by AWS, advertising, and its Prime ecosystem. As the company matures, investors are curious whether it can continue to deliver meaningful returns over the next five years.

• Past 10-Year CAGR (Stock Price): ~20%
• EPS CAGR (Last 5 Years): ~35%
• Revenue CAGR (Last 10 Years): ~20%

Amazon has steadily increased its profitability by focusing on high-margin businesses like AWS and advertising.

To estimate future returns, we look at different EPS growth and PE multiple scenarios.

• Current EPS: $5.90
• Time Horizon: 5 Years

• Even in the worst-case (15% EPS growth, 30x PE), Amazon may still offer double-digit returns.
• Base-case scenario (20% EPS growth, 40x PE) projects a solid ~25.5% CAGR—better than index returns.
• Best-case upside touches nearly 40% CAGR, indicating multi-bagger potential if both earnings and valuation expand.

Let’s say you’re targeting a 20% CAGR and believe the stock will trade at a 40x PE in 2030 with EPS of $14.66:

[ \text{Target Price} = 14.66 \times 40 = $586.40 ]

To earn 20% CAGR from current date:

[ \text{Present Value} = \frac{586.40}{(1.20)^5} \approx $236 ]

✅ If you buy below $236, you can expect >20% CAGR in this base scenario.

Amazon is well-positioned for continued growth across multiple verticals. Despite being a trillion-dollar company, its profitability runway is still expanding. At the current price of $190, the risk-reward looks attractive, especially if EPS growth remains healthy.

Investors with a 5+ year view may find current levels a compelling opportunity—provided valuation discipline and growth expectations are realistic.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before investing.